VINIMEX are pleased to update market news on JUNE 24, 2022 as below
COMMODITY MARKET MOVEMENT ON CBOT – June 23, 2022
Weather: The NOAA 8-to-14-day forecast predicts seasonably warm weather for the majority of the Midwest and Plains between June 30 and July 6. Wetter-than-normal conditions are expected to return to the Plains, upper Midwest, and parts of the western Corn Belt. Large totals of 0.75″ to 1.0″ are possible in parts of Iowa and Minnesota.
General: Following news of heavy Midwest rains this weekend and early next week, prices for maize and soybeans dropped by more than 3%. Wheat prices continued to decline Friday night, falling another 2% to 3.75 percent as the Northern Hemisphere’s harvest continued.
SOYBEANThe International Grains Council’s updated estimates show a 4 MMT increase in 22/23 global production, which is now at 387 MMT. Soybean ending stocks increased by 4 MMT from the previous month’s estimate to now be 13 MMT above 21/22. Yesterday, Argentine truck drivers went on strike, blocking 4 miles of a major grain highway. The protest was sparked by high diesel prices and nationwide fuel shortages. Other citizens joined the effort, but according to reports, the protest has ended and transportation has resumed. Argentina increased the required biodiesel blend rate for a 60-day period earlier in June, hoping to alleviate some of the fuel shortage. According to Chinese soybean import data by country of origin, 7.8 MMT of their May imports came from Brazil, with 1.73 MMT coming from the United States. This compares to 9.2 MMT and 244k MT respectively last year. China imported 20.5 MMT of soybeans from Brazil and 16.77 MMT from the United States in the first five months of 2021. It was 15.6 and 21.5 MMT respectively last year.
CORNWeather premiums have been removed from the market as a result of NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for much of the Corn Belt. These rains will follow the recent heat wave, which was generally thought to be beneficial for later planted crops in terms of accumulating enough GDD to catch up to a more normalized year. According to the IGC, world corn production will be 1.184 billion MT in 22/23. This is a decrease from their previous 1.197 billion MT estimate and remains below last year’s 1.214 billion. Carryout stocks increased by 4 MMT as consumption fell by more than the amount of output lost.
WHEATAccording to the USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report, 98 percent of the spring wheat crop was planted and 89 percent was up. Planting is typically completed by June 19th, with a 5-year average emergence rate of 97 percent. Spring wheat conditions were reported to be 59% good/ex and only 6% poor/VP. USDA Export Inspections showed 331,328 MT of wheat for the week ending 6/16. This was down from 412k MT the previous week and 555k MT the previous year during the same week. HRS exports led the complex, accounting for 136,256 MT of the total. White added another 18k MT of durum to make up 90k MT. The remaining 87k MT were winter wheats. USDA also added 23k MT to previous reports, bringing the year-to-date total to 969,953 MT.
PRICE MOVEMENT ON CBOT JUNE 23