VINIMEX are pleased to update market news on July 14, 2022 as below
COMMODITY MARKET MOVEMENT ON CBOT – July 13, 2022
Weather: Rainfall in the Corn Belt is expected to range from 12 to 2 inches in 65 percent of the region through Tuesday, with amounts of 2 12 to 3 inches possible in some areas. Temperatures are expected to be close to or slightly below normal. The Southeast United States is expected to receive 34 to 2 12″ of rain during the period, with a few amounts ranging from 3-5″ – especially in southeastern areas.
General: Despite weather concerns across the United States, markets traded on both sides last day, with early gains that faded as the day progressed. Consumers are paying 9.1 percent more than they did a year ago, and the trend is worsening (8.8 percent expected), prompting Wall Street to brace for more rate hikes.
SOYBEANPre-report estimates for old crop soybean export sales for the week ending 7/7 range from +/- 200k MT. Last week’s book was a net cancelation of 160k MT. Analysts predict that between 100k and 300k MT of new crop will be sold. Estimated soymeal export sales range from 50,000 to 300,000 MT, with an additional 50k MT for 22/23. Despite the price drop, analysts believe fewer than 20k MT of soybean oil was booked during the week. The July WASDE update increased domestic old crop stocks by 10 million bushels to 215. New crop stocks were reduced by 50 mbu from last month to 230 million as supply shifted to compensate for lost demand. Following the reduction in acreage on June 30th, the USDA’s production estimate fell by 135 mbu. 22/23 crush was also reduced by 10 mbu to 2.245 bbu, but exports were reduced by 65 mbu to 2.135 bbu.
CORNAccording to EIA data, average daily ethanol production was 1.005 million barrels during the week ending 7/8. This was a decrease from 1.044m bpd the previous week and the lowest weekly output since May. Ethanol stocks increased by 116k barrels week on week, primarily on the West Coast. USDA increased old crop corn carryout by 25 mbu to 1.510 bbu yesterday. New crop output increased as expected due to increased acreage and a consistent yield of 14.505. Higher carry-in and production were carried through, resulting in 70 mbu higher ending stocks of 1.470 bbu in August 2023.
WHEATThe Ukraine, Russian Federation, and Turkish Defense Ministers have agreed to meet next week to sign an agreement outlining the parameters for allowing Ukraine to export grain via the Black Sea. Despite the lower planted area in NASS’s June 30th report, WASDE results showed that the higher harvested percentage and increased yield were sufficient to lift wheat production. This amounted to a 44 mbu increase when the market was expecting a 4 mbu cut on average. The total output was 1.781 bbu, comprised of 585 mbu HRW, 375.6 SRW, 239.9 mbu white winter, 503 mbu other spring, and 77 mbu durum. 12 mbu of the 44 mbu increased supply was carried through for a total of 639 mbu.
PRICE MOVEMENT ON CBOT JULY 13