VINIMEX are pleased to update market news on November 22, 2022 as below
COMMODITY MARKET MOVEMENT ON CBOT – November 21, 2022
Weather: According to NOAA’s latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map, the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region will see some additional snowfall between Saturday and Tuesday, while areas farther west and south are less likely to see any measurable moisture during this time. Between November 25 and December 1, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day forecast predicts more seasonally dry weather for the Corn Belt, Central and Southern Plains, and warmer-than-normal conditions for the Plains.
General: Corn and wheat prices are falling due to a stronger dollar, rail strike fears, and export woes. Rail strike: The largest rail workers union in the United States voted today to cancel a vote on a deal with railways in protest of paid sick leave terms. The vote increases the likelihood of a rail workers strike, which could disrupt grain and fertilizer supplies for farmers who are already dealing with logistical challenges due to low river levels and delayed shipping rates on the Mississippi River. SOYBEANSWeekly FGIS Inspections data showed 2.33 million metric tons of soybean exports during the week ending 11/17. This was a 19% increase over the previous week but a 7% decrease from the same week last year. China was the most popular destination, accounting for 75% of all visitors. MYTD soybean shipments were 17.128 MMT as of 11/17, a 2.01 MMT decrease from the previous year’s pace. China imported 2.8 MMT of soybeans in October, a 500k MT decrease from the previous month. Shipments from Brazil fell 15%, while US-sourced beans remained mostly flat year on year at 773k MT. Data from China Customs confirmed 49.3 MMT of Brazilian soybeans were brought in YTD, down from 52.75 MMT in 2021. Imports from the United States total 20.1 MMT for the calendar year to date.
The NASS reported that 96% of the corn crop had been harvested, representing a 3% weekly progress. By 11/20, the 5-year average pace would have completed 90% of the work. Milo was 6% points ahead of the average, with 97% out as of 11/20, according to the report. According to Weekly Export Inspections data, 495,395 MT of corn was shipped during the week ending 11/17. This was down from 535k MT the previous week and 826k MT the previous year during the same week. The MS River carried the majority of the corn (66%). With over 150k MT, China and Mexico were the top two destinations. The USDA estimated the season total at 5.48 MMT as of 11/17, trailing last year’s total by 2.35 MMT.
WHEATAccording to the USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report, emergence had reached 87% as of 11/20. This is 1% higher than the 5-year average. According to the Inspections report, weekly wheat exports totaled 279,904 MT. That was a 109k MT increase week on week and an 87k MT increase from the same week last year. White wheat accounted for 43% of the total, with HRW accounting for 34%. On 11/16, China released 40,152 MT of wheat from state reserves, accounting for 100% of the offer, at an average price of $11.14 per bushel.
PRICE MOVEMENT ON CBOT NOVEMBER 21