COMMODITY MARKET MOVEMENT ON CBOT – APR 20, 2020.
Weather : The southern U.S. is in for a relatively wet three days, with many areas likely to gather another 1.5” or more between Tuesday and Friday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The Midwest and Plains are expected to see only modest precipitation during this time, however. Further out, NOAA is expecting a temperature split heading into May, with warmer-than-normal temperatures west of the Mississippi River and seasonally cooler weather farther east between April 27 and May 3, per the agency’s latest 8-to-14-day outlook.
General : Grain prices were decidedly mixed to start the week. On the negative side of the ledger was corn and soybeans, which spilled into the red today, largely on spillover weakness from cratering crude oil prices. But wheat picked up solid gains, with some contracts up more than 3%, on optimism that reduced exports in the Black Sea region will help U.S. prospects through at least the end of the 2019/20 marketing year. A South Korean feed group purchased 2.1 million bushels of corn from South America in a private deal earlier today. The grain is for arrival in early October.
May bean oil closed 31 points lower. May soy options expire on Friday. Export inspections for soybeans were 19.835 mbu on the week ending April 16. That was higher both wk/wk and yr/yr. China was the top destination for the week’s soybean shipments with 13.5% of the total. MYTD soybean exports were up to 1.209 bbu, which is 5.9% above last year’s pace. US Soybean planting reached 2% of the forecasted total acreage by April 19.
There was a lot of pressure from the crude oil market sell off today. May corn options expire on Friday, and first notice day for deliveries against May is the 30th. USDA will issue $3.9 billion USD in COVID relief for crop producers in direct payments, the payments will be formulated to up to 85% of forgone pricing from Jan 1 to April 15 (not to exceed $125,000 for an individual or a single entity). The direct payment amount formula also addresses projected losses from April 15 to mid-October. U.S. corn planting progressed 4 percentage points from last week to 7% completed. The average planting progress through week 16 is 9% complete.
KC HRW wheat futures were up the most, with 16 1/2 to 17 cent gains on Monday. SRW wheat posted gains of 12 3/4 to 15 1/4 cents. MPLS wheat futures were 3 3/4 to 4 cents higher. Russian exports could be restricted between mid-May and July if the remaining quota is used up by mid-May as is currently anticipated. In the USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report, wheat shipments were 469,922 MT on the week ending April 16. MYTD wheat shipments reached 21.964 MMT during the same week. USDA showed spring wheat planting was 7% complete on April 19 vs. the 5-yr average of 18%. Winter wheat ratings were 347 points on the Brugler500 index, which was down 11 points wk/wk.
PRICE MOVEMENT ON CBOT APR 20
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