General: Wheat was the clear winner, with most contracts grabbing double-digit gains. But corn and soybean prices spilled into the red. USDA predicted historically large acres for both crops this upcoming season.
USDA’s preliminary, non survey based, soybean planting projection came in at the trade expected 90m acres – citing return of 2019-2020’s PP acres. That would be up 6.7m acres yr/yr if realized in the June acreage report. The initial cash average price projection is $11.25. On average the trade expects USDA to report the initial outlook of a 4.520 bbu soy crop. Soybean sales are expected to be reported between 300k and 900k MT for the week ending 2/11 in tomorrow’s Export Sales. New crop commitments are estimated between 50,000 and 300,000 MT. For soymeal, trade is looking for 100k to 350k MT of sales. The range of estimates for soy oil export sales is 5,000 MT to 25,000 MT.
USDA’s preliminary, non-survey based, corn planting projection came in at the trade expected 92m acres – citing return of 2019-2020’s PP acres to production. The initial average cash price estimate for 2021 crop is $4.20 per bushel. EIA ethanol production data showed a 26k bpd decrease to 911,000 barrels per day for the week ending 2/12. Stocks were reported higher on the week, up 501k barrels to 24.297 million. Estimates ahead of Friday’s Export Sales report call for between 0.8 and 1.2 MMT. New crop corn sales are expected to be below 150k MT. Export Sales data will be pushed back to Friday because of the Monday holiday.
Trade estimates ahead of USDA’s weekly Export Sales report are for 250k to 650k MT. New crop bookings are estimated to be below 50k MT. Syria is tendering for 200k MT of wheat. Japan bought 82,393 MT of U.S. wheat in the weekly MOA tender. Philippines purchased 145k MT of optional origin wheat. S. Korea importers bought 55k MT of optional origin feed wheat.
PRICE MOVEMENT ON CBOT FEB 18