General: Soybeans led the way with another round of double-digit gains. USDA is expected to show a further tightening of domestic soybean stocks. Corn followed suit, rising around 0.5% on a round of technical buying today. Wheat prices were mixed amid an uneven round oftechnical maneuvering.
CME reported 80 deliveries against Jan bean futures. The oldest long is now 12/30. There have not been any issued against meal or oil, with the oldest longs dated 12/16 and 12/22 respectively. USDA announced a private export sale of 204k MT of soybeans to China for 2020/21 delivery. The weekly CoT report had soybean spec traders 175,827 contracts net long as of 1/5. That was a wk/wk drop of 11.5% led by a 9.5% reduction from the spec longs. For soymeal, managed money was 84,594 contracts net long, following a 4,893 contract reduction wk/wk. For the MY ending stocks the trade is anticipating a further 36 mbu cut for an average estimate of 139 mbu. Production is estimated to be reduced to 4.158 bbu on an additional 0.2 bpa yield cut
New crop futures closed Friday in the red. CFTC’s weekly data release showed managed money extended their net long in corn by 17,843 contracts to 349,888. That came mostly via new buying, as spec trader OI was up 4,945 contracts wk/wk. Commercials added 70,576 shorts on the week ending 1/5, leaving them 761,054 contracts net short (an all time record). The average of trade estimates for Dec 1 corn stocks is 11.951 bbu, according to a Reuters survey. For ending stocks, the trade anticipates USDA a cut of 103 mbu for 1.599 bbu (call it 1.6 billion) left on September 1. The Argentine government has agreed to reconsider their recently announced ban on corn exports after meeting with producers and industry.
CFTC’s weekly data release showed managed money was 25,210 contracts net long in CBT wheat on 1/5. That was an 11,850 contract increase to their net long wk/wk. In HRW, specs were 1,103 contracts less net long from a 6,205 increase in managed money’s OI. MGE wheat spec traders grew their net long 3,815 contracts to 7,748 contracts. A Reuters survey shows analysts expect USDA to report winter wheat acreage at 31.528 million (with the range of estimates slightly lower to 6% higher yr/yr). On average HRW acreage is estimated to increase 3.6% from 2020/21 to 22.14m acres; and SRW is estimated at 5.884m acres, up 5.6% yr/yr. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased their estimate of the Argentine wheat crop to 17 MMT from 16.8 MMT due to realizing higher than expected yields.
PRICE MOVEMENT ON CBOT JAN 08