VINIMEX are pleased to update market news on January 13, 2021 as below
COMMODITY MARKET MOVEMENT ON CBOT – January 12, 2021
Weather: Some wetter weather is headed to the upper Midwest between Wednesday and Saturday – particularly in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin – per NOAA’s latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts more seasonally wet weather for most of the Corn Belt between January 19 and January 25, with seasonally warm weather in store for the southern U.S. during this time.
General: Corn prices locked limit up just 15 minutes after USDA released today's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Soybeans and wheat prices also moved substantially higher immediately following the report, which confirmed much tighter domestic stocks.
USDA raised the cash average prices to $11.15/bu for soybeans, $390/ton for meal. USDA cut the national average soybean yield by 0.5 bpa. The Jan estimate is for a 4.135 bbu crop, which was 35 mbu lighter than Dec. USDA see’s 2020/21 soybean ending stocks at 140 mbu. Exports are forecasted at 2.23 bbu, up from 2.2 in December. Crush was also up by 5 mbu to 2.2 bbu. Dec 1 stockpile of 2.933 mbu implies demand was 37.53% of supply for the first quarter. In So. Am. USDA trimmed Argentina’s output by 2 MMT but left Brazil’s at 133. Global soybean imports were slightly higher, but China was firm at 100 MMT. USDA raised their production forecast for China by 2.1 MMT, adding it to ending stocks now at 28.6 MMT. For soymeal, USDA lowered World exports by 270k MT. Argentina was reduced by 400k MT with U.S. picking up the difference.
The USDA projected average cash price for 2020 crop is now $4.20/bu, up 20 cents. The crop size was reduced 4% from December, on an additional 3.8 bpa yield cut. Traders were expecting a 0.7 bpa cut. The biggest revisions were a 10bpa cuts in MN and WI, and 10 bpa cut in TX. IA yields were trimmed back by 6 bpa to 178. The national average corn yield is now 4% below trend at 172 bpa. Harvested acreage was trimmed slightly to 82.47 million. The lower supply reduced exports by 100 mbu to 2.55 bbu. Ethanol was also down by 100 mbu to 4.95 bbu. The price rationed demand cuts did not offset the supply change, leaving 2020/21 ending stocks at 1.552 bbu. That is a 47 mbu larger cut than the average trade guess. Stocks are 10.6% of the revised use figures, which is 7% tighter than the Dec estimate. The first quarter ending stocks were 11.322 bbu. That implies Q1 demand was 29.79% of supply. In So. America, USDA trimmed Argentina’s output by 1.5 MMT and Brazil’s by 1. China’s corn production forecast was a net 670k MT higher, as better yields more than offset the 736k HA flood loss. USDA also raised Chinese corn imports to 17.5 MMT.
2021/22 winter wheat acreage was reported at 31.99m acres, compared to 31.45 expected and 30.42 million LY. Of that, 69.7% was HRW and 19.4% was SRW, compared to 70.2% and 18.3% in 2019/20. Spring wheat futures closed 14 1/4 to 15 1/4 cents in the black. USDA reported December 1 wheat stocks at 1.673 mbu, compared to the average trade guess of 1.696 mbu. The MY ending stocks are forecasted at 836 mbu, down 26 mbu from December as the Grain Stocks number forced a higher feed & residual use estimate. Globally, ending stocks were cut 3.31 MMT (trade looking for 1.1), mostly from US and Australia, to 313.19 MMT. Russian wheat stocks partially offset the cut, with a 1.8 MMT bump to 12.53 MMT. Global wheat trade was mostly neutral, as the 1 MMT cut to Russian exports was transferred to 500k increases for EU and Canada.
PRICE MOVEMENT ON CBOT JAN 12