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Admin - 15/07/2020

VINIMEX are pleased to update market news on JULY 15, 2020 as below



Weather: Rainfall potential will be mixed to close out the week, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Some areas, including northern Missouri, eastern Iowa and all of Illinois, could see another 1” or more total accumulation between Wednesday and Saturday, while Minnesota and South Dakota will be relatively dry during this time. Further out, seasonally wet weather is likely from July 21 to July 27, with drier conditions emerging in the Central and Southern Plains, per NOAA’s latest 8-to-14-day outlook. The entire U.S. is likely to see above-average temperatures during this time.


General: Grain prices were mixed but mostly higher on a round of technical selling anchored by the announcement of two large grain sales to China. Crumbling quality ratings for corn and soybeans lent additional support, although traders still appear to be mostly bearish on any substantial weather rally right now, with plenty of rain still in the forecast later this week. Most wheat contracts benefited from some short-covering after mixed news on world supplies today.


Private exporters reported a sale of 129k MT of new crop beans to China. USDA’s Ag Attaché lowered their 2019/20 Brazilian bean production estimate by 500k MT to 123 MMT. Harvest had finished in June. Production for the next marketing year was marked at 130 MMT, compared to the official 131 MMT from the July WASDE. China imported 11.2 MMT of soybeans in June, that is up 1.8 MMT mo/mo and up 4.7 MMT yr/yr.




NOAA’s 7-day accumulated precip forecast shows a band of 0.5 to 2.5” from WI through northern MO, topping out at 3” in spots. USDA’s mandatory reporting system reported the 4th largest single day corn sale announcement of all time; 1.762 MMT (>69 million bushels) to China. The large export sale is for 2020/21 marketing year delivery. USDA’s Ag Attaché left their production estimate for Brazil’s 19/20 corn production at 100 MMT (1 MMT below official) citing continued dryness afflicted yields. The Ag Attaché foresees an average yield of 5.42 MT/HA (~80.6 bu/acre) compared to USDA’s 5.49 (81.6). For 2020/21, Ag Attaché sees Brazilian corn production 4 MMT below the official 103 MMT in the WASDE report.



The European Drought Observatory sees rainfall deficit for Northeast France and most of Germany. Within the affected area, they also report pockets of soil moisture deficit and crop stress. Citing the same dryness, USDA’s Ag Attaché estimates Austria’s soft wheat production to fall 2% yr/yr and to 8.5% below the 5-yr average, despite planted area only dropping 0.9% yr/yr. The yield estimate is 5.35 MT/HA (~79.5 bu/acre) for the EU nation. Egypt purchased 114k MT of Russian wheat in an international tender. Japan’s MOA tender seeks 71k MT of U.S. wheat, 26k MT of Canadian wheat, and 30k MT of Australian.



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