COMMODITY MARKET MOVEMENT ON CBOT – May 08, 2019.

General : Grain prices saw small to moderate losses Wednesday, due to a variety of reasons. Corn fell around 1% on drier intermediate forecasts that could accelerate planting progress next week. Soybeans saw smaller declines, as traders continue to express concerns over U.S.-China trade progress. And wheat prices continue to face major headwinds from large domestic and global supplies but only saw fractional losses today.South Korea purchased 60,000 metric tons of soymeal in an international tender that closed earlier today, for arrival by the end of September.

SOYBEAN

A report from Reuters states that China had backtracked on many of their commitments in a draft trade agreement sent to the US on Friday. That drove President Trump’s decision to increase the 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25%, which goes into effect this upcoming Friday. The trade range of estimates for 18/19 US soybean export sales in the week of May 2 is 300,000-650,000, with new crop at 50,000-450,000 MT. The average trade guess for Friday’s WASDE shows Brazil soybean production UNCH at 117 MMT, with Argentina up slightly to 55.7 MMT. Chinese soybean imports in April tallied 7.64 MMT, according to Customs data, up 55.3% from March and 10.7% larger than last year. A USDA attach report shows 18/19 Chinese soybean imports at 84 MMT, 4 MMT below USDA’s current official estimate, with 19/20 at 83 MMT.

CORN

The 6-10 day outlook shows below normal chances for precip in most of IA and the ECB. This week’s EIA report indicated that 1.036 million barrels of ethanol was produced in the week of 5/3. That was a jump of 12,000 bpd from the week prior and 4,000 bpd shy of the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were down 227,000 barrels at 22.468 million barrels, which is the lowest since last July. Analysts expect old crop export sales to total 500,000-800,000 MT in Thursday’s USDA Export Sales report, with 50,000-200,000 MT in new crop sales. Ahead of Friday’s USDA report, analysts expect Brazilian corn production to be increased by 0.7 to 96.7 MMT, with Argentina up 1 from last month at 48 MMT.

WHEAT

Traders are expecting USDA to show 75,000-250,000 MT in old crop export sales for the week ending May 2, with 100,000-350,000 MT seen for new crop. With the marketing year ending May 31, most of the business will be expected to be in the new crop slot. Ahead of USDA’s WASDE report on Friday, analysts expect old crop World wheat ending stocks to be slightly higher at 275.89 MMT. The initial roll out of 19/20 ending stocks is expected to be around 277.42 MMT, with a wide range of guesses from 259-290 MMT.